What I Think the Iraq Study Group Will Find.

If you look at the co-chairs of the Iraq Study Group, what do you see? James Baker, a noted Bush family fixer; and Lee Hamilton, the same Democrat tasked with giving a “bipartisan” look to a 9-11 Commission that was determined to reach a politically acceptable, if not thorough, conclusion on what should be done in response to the terrorist threat.

Is there any reason to expect anything more with this group? I’ve heard lots of talk about how the ISG will serve as a vehicle for a change of course in Iraq, basically an excuse to give up “staying the course” without being seen as “cutting and running.” TPM has posted a good overview of the predominant assumptions about what the ISG will do. They mostly involve coming up with a miraculous new solution that will save Bush’s bacon.

So what can the Iraq Study Group recommend that will be of any benefit to the Bush presidency? Most experts see Iraq continuing to deteriorate, at least over the next few years, no matter what we do. So, for George W. Bush, who has to ride out the next two years of living with his failed policies, a miraculous solution will have to be political and not tactical.

Here is what I expect to happen.

Much like the 9-11 Commission carefully detailed preventative steps to head off future terrorist attacks, but without drawing any attention to the secret desires personal failures of the Bush administration that led to 9-11, the IRG will detail some strategic adjustments that US troops can perform in Iraq to minimize the violence over the remaining two years of the Bush presidency, presumably with the goal of ending US troop involvement “as soon as possible.”

This will serve several political purposes hidden behind the tactical sounding recommendations. It will validate, at least from Bush’s perspective, the decision to stay in Iraq for the remainder of his presidency. It will allow him to continue looking forward and ignoring the lengthy string of blunders and lies that led us into war in the first place. If the Democrats push for a more rapid withdrawal, and are successful in that effort, he will be able to blame any short-term decline (that will most likely occur throughout the rest of his term in office) on the Democrats.

If he is successful in using the IRG report as justification to stay in Iraq rather than admit incompetence defeat, Bush will be able to pass on the responsibility for choosing to withdraw troops to his successor. In other words, if things go badly once troops are removed, he can claim it was because his successor didn’t stay long enough. If things go well, he can say it was because he followed the recommendations of the IRG and set the stage for a successful withdrawal of troops.

Bush has already gone on record as saying he believes we will be in Iraq beyond the end of his presidency. His recent call for “one last big push to win in Iraq” is yet another indication of his “run out the clock” strategy. He is going to make sure that when it comes to leaving the chaos created by his war, he’s not going to be the decider!

And neither is the Iraq Study Group!

Unfortunately for the troops who will continue to die or be injured in the meantime, the only miraculous solution that would be of benefit to them is one that gives no consideration to politics!