This chart from NYT spells out the lay of the land. Dems’ need to pick up 6 seats to gain a majority. According to NYT’s recent reporting, and what I’ve picked up from other sources, the following races have become the keys to the GOP strategy. For simplicity, I’ve listed all the candidates by the Dems’ preferred outcome. Poll info includes a range of the most recently reported outcomes.
GOP bracing to lose:
1. Pennsylvania – Casey over Santorum (Leads by 5-12%)
2. Rhode Island – Whitehouse over Chafee (Leads by 3-10%)
3. Montana – Tester over Burns (Leads by 3-7%)
4. Ohio - Brown over DeWine (Leads by 3-5%)
GOP hoping to retain:
1. Missouri – McCaskill over Talent (Leads by 0-3%)
2. Tennessee – Ford over Corker (Leads by 1-5%)
3. West Virginia – Webb over Allen (Trailing by 0-3%, but with macaca momentum!)
GOP desperately hoping to win:
- New Jersey - Menendez over Kean (Leads by 3-7%)
Summary:
With the recent decision to divert funds from the DeWine campaign to more “winnable” races, the GOP are essentially prepared (if not resigned) to lose 4 seats. Although New Jersey is considered their best (and probably, only) hope of picking up a seat, the polls indicate it is a huge longshot. That means it probably comes down to the middle three races. Whoever wins two out of three from this group probably has the majority - with the GOP needing to run the table to avoid having to rely on Darth Cheney as a tie-breaking (and P.R.-killing!) vote.
Basically, the GOP strategy is to focus on protecting Talent, a noted Bush rubber-stamper; protecting Frist’s vacated Tennessee seat for Corker, a scandal-laden, slime thrower who may become the next DeWine, against a popular Dem House member; and protecting the slumping Allen, who has recently been shown to be a liar and a bigot, and whose oft-cited Presidential aspirations come from being tagged as “the next George Bush” (ie: a moron!)
That’s not an enviable position from which to try to retain any kind of bragging rights! In fact, by the time the dust settles on this midterm election, I suspect the majority of the American people will place more credibility in Oakland Raider owner, Al Davis’ ongoing claims that “Da Raidas” are “The Winningest Team in Professional Sports” than in any boasts the GOP will be able to muster!
Didja have to bring-up the Raiders? From what I've been picking-up, the Dems have an even better shot at taking the House. We might even get rid of California's 2 most embarassing Congressmen, Doolittle and Pombo. The Bee has been all over the Doolittle/Brown race, and apparently good old Charlie Brown wiped the floor with Doolittle in their televised debate. Unfortunately, the station that aired the debate was some podunk public access channel that very few people get, even in Doolittle's podunk district. But there seems to be a real groundswell of support for Brown, who's actually pretty conservative. But at least he's not a corrupt slimeball like Doolittle...
ReplyDeleteAll in all, things are looking-up. The Repugs are really going to have to game the system to hold on to power.