I want to go back to the issue of the Gallup poll showing 28% of Democratic Clinton supporters and 19% of Democratic Obama supporters would vote for John McCain over the other Democrat.
First of all, I’ve heard the theory that these figures are misleading because many of the 19% for Obama are lifelong Republicans who are only now considering a Democrat for the first time. And many of the 28% for Clinton are only supporting her in the Democratic race in order to serve her up as an easy opponent for McCain (In other words, they would vote for McCain in the general either way!)
It’s hard to tell how much weight to give to these arguments, since I can’t tell whether the poll is focused on those who voted in the 2008 Democratic Primary, or those who identify themselves as Democrats. If it’s the former, then I would agree that the poll is probably meaningless. If it’s the latter, then I share the concerns of those who fear the worst regarding what would essentially be “revenge voting!”
On the other hand, I certainly hope that once a nominee is determined, people will begin to realize (as they are told over and over by the Democrat in the race) that a vote for McCain will never be seen historically as vote for vindication of the losing Democratic candidate. It will be seen, forever and completely, as a vote of confidence in the policies of Bush and Cheney!
In fact, this will be the last opportunity for Democrats and discouraged Independents and Republicans to repudiate the policies of Bush and Cheney!
Even if McCain is elected and then ousted for a Democrat in 2112, Bush and Cheney will forever be able to claim that they left office with enough public support to re-elect another Republican. At that point, in Bush’s (feeble) mind, anything less than complete triumphant success in the Middle East will be on McCain’s head.
Of course, he’ll blame it on the Democrats anyway, but if McCain takes over first, Bush can bolster his claims of "being right all along" with claims of having had a vote of confidence from the American people!
That is, if people are stupid enough to vote for McCain!