Friday, October 24, 2008

My Thoughts Exactly!

Every once in a while, I unexpectedly come across a post that so perfectly reflects my own thoughts that it’s stunning. In light of the growing sense of unease outright dread over the current financial meltdown, I really wish that I had written Eben Esterhuizen’s piece: What Happens to the Stock Market if Obama Becomes the CEO of America?
I don't want to put Obama on a pedestal, but I'm feeling bullish as an investor due to the underlying trends that are fueling his success. The same forces that are engineering an Obama victory will repair the American economy.

I am a South African working in the United States and I will probably apply for citizenship if Obama is elected. It's not because I want to live in a country with someone like Obama at the helm. It's because I want to live in a country that can go from the tyranny of George Walker Bush to the promise of Barack Hussein Obama in the space of eight years. It's because I want to live in a country where people can admit that something is wrong and fix it. It's because I want to live in a country where people believe in real change.
These are the bullish forces that will shape the outlook for the stock market. Think of a struggling public company: if the CEO is removed by the board, the stock price tends to shoot higher because investors reward companies that own up to their problems and fix them.
Of course, the flip side is the view of some conservatives who say the recent Wall Street freefall is because the market is already adjusting to expectations of an Obama Administration that will be unfriendly to corporations.

For me, this combines with Esterhuizen’s theory to form one of my greatest dreams, which is that the most extreme conservatives will keep bailing from the equity markets, even as the rest of the country starts to turn more optimistic about the future. By the time they realize Obama’s policies are working, they will have lost billions from selling at the trough and whining about why Obama is bad for the economy, while Obama’s supporters will have already ridden a bull market back to new wealth.

It’s still a dream, but it could happen!

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