The Politics of a Filibuster [Updated]

With the critical question of whether to filibuster Samuel Alito before them, the Democrats have been granted a one-week delay before a vote of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Because several prominent Republicans have already threatened to invoke the “nuclear option” if there is a filibuster, it appears Alito will likely end up on the Supreme Court regardless of actions taken by the minority. So the debate over whether or not to filibuster largely hinges on whether potential negative political fallout outweighs the slight chance of successfully keeping Alito off the court – by gaining enough Republican votes to maintain the filibuster in the face of the “nuclear option.”

In short, the issue is: Can the Democrats frame a filibuster to gain maximum support from the electorate regardless of whether they are successful at keeping Alito off of the Supreme Court? In my view, the key question to ask is simply this: Do the American people want George W. Bush as their dictator?

If Alito is confirmed, or forced onto the court by procedural maneuvering by the majority Republicans, Bush will, in essence, be a dictator. At least until the mid-term elections, there will be no branch of government that isn’t beholden to him.

He has insisted that he is not bound by laws enacted by Congress, and the current Republican congressional majority will not allow a meaningful investigation into any of the questionable activities he has undertaken since becoming President. They have proven themselves to be nothing but a rubber stamp for his agenda for the last five years.

Allowing Alito on the Supreme Court could be the final nail in the coffin of American democracy. After all, Alito is the one who authored the opinion that the President can sign legislation with a stipulation that he doesn’t have to follow the law that he is signing, as he recently did with the torture ban. With such an expansive view of presidential powers, Alito, as a replacement for Sandra Day O’Connor, can only tip the balance of the court toward giving Bush the unchecked power of a dictator.

Arguably, with Alito on the Supreme Court and a Republican Congress, the only real difference between Bush’s presidency and the reign of Saddam Hussein would be that the US has elections in which the people can vote to restore checks on presidential power. Listening to Bush, he already seems to think he has the power, if not the overt desire, to do any of the horrible things Saddam was said to have done, as long as it’s in the name of the “war on terror!”

If the Democrats frame a filibuster as their last stand to keep Bush from becoming a dictator, I believe it will be very difficult for the Republicans to make hay by claiming the Democrats are being obstructionists. Regardless of their feelings toward Bush, most Americans don’t like the idea of being led by a dictator, and Bush’s recent actions (and even some of his past statements) indicate that he would prefer being a dictator to being President anyway!

I think it could work, and with relatively little political risk! Besides, even if the “nuclear option” is successfully invoked to get Alito on the court, the Democrats will have just kicked off their campaign for retaking the Congress in the mid-term elections!

[Update] Here's a great post that covers many of the points I want people to know about the Alito confirmation.